Sports Market Intelligence
Meet Nova.
Intelligence built for the market behind the game.
Nova takes the same inputs the market takes, builds its own fair price, and states plainly where the two disagree: the number, the thesis, the risk, and the price at which the read stops working. Not a picks service. Not a tipster. A pricing system.
OTT @ LAK
NHL · Live · 11:13 - 1st
+1.5
5.5
BUF @ ANA
NHL · Live · 13:33 - 1st
+1.5
6.5
VAN @ SJS
NHL · Live · 11:25 - 1st
-1.5
6.5
MEM @ POR
NBA · Live · 7:21 - 1st
-7.5
232.5
Today’s biggest movers
Home spread · open vs nowThe Problem
More information isn't the answer.
Odds move while injury news is still being written. A lineup confirms after the number has already adjusted. Weather turns between the morning report and the closing line. Every input changes the fair price, and none of them arrive with a price attached. The scarce part is not the information. It is knowing what that information is worth, in the market's own units.
The sportsbook publishes a price.
Nova publishes its own.
The MarketNova Framework
Market Price vs. Nova Price.
Four numbers carry every read. Everything else on the platform is evidence for them.
Market Price
PIT +2.5
Nova Price
PIT +1.5
Dislocation
+1.0 PT
Buy To
PIT +2.0
PITTSBURGH @ VIRGINIA TECH · Demonstration data
Market Price
The number the sportsbook is currently offering.
Nova Price
Nova’s independent fair number for the same market, produced before the sportsbook number is considered.
Dislocation
The distance between the two, in the market’s own units.
Buy To
The worst price at which the read still holds. Past it, the opportunity is gone.
The Intelligence Engine
Information is not the product.
Nova takes the same inputs the market takes, prices them independently, and reports where the two disagree.
INGEST
Prices, lineups, personnel, injuries, weather, schedules, and travel enter the system from every supported source.
PRICE
Nova builds its own fair number for the market before it looks at the sportsbook.
INVESTIGATE
Where its number disagrees with the market, Nova tests the disagreement against personnel, matchup, movement, and game context.
STRESS TEST
Nova argues against itself: contradictory evidence, uncertainty, and the specific conditions that would break the thesis.
MONITOR
Every read is re-checked as information changes. Material change produces a new price, or retires the old one.
Research is not the output.
Understanding is not the output.
Price is the output.
Intelligence Includes Restraint
Sometimes Nova's answer is no.
Most of the board does not clear Nova's bar. The system is built to say so plainly, not to manufacture a position.
The market is past buy-to. The read qualifies.
Close, but not yet. A listed condition would make it qualify.
Nova has priced it and there is no dislocation worth acting on.
A required input is missing or unverified. Nova will not price on a guess.
The read qualified. The market has since moved past buy-to.
A pass is a completed analysis, not an absence of one.
One Nova
One Price. One Thesis. One State.
Everywhere.
Priced once by one engine, then read the same way on every surface. No second opinion to reconcile.
PITTSBURGH @ VIRGINIA TECH
NCAAF · Spread
Market
PIT +2.5
Nova
PIT +1.5
Buy to
PIT +2.0
State
PLAY
PITTSBURGH @ VIRGINIA TECH
Nova prices Pittsburgh +1.5 vs market +2.5. Dislocation reflects unconfirmed personnel status on Virginia Tech.
Invalidators · 2
Market
PIT +2.5
Nova
PIT +1.5
Buy to
PIT +2.0
State
PLAY
PITTSBURGH @ VIRGINIA TECH
Nova prices PIT +1.5 against a market of PIT +2.5. Dislocation +1.0 PT.
Market
PIT +2.5
Nova
PIT +1.5
Buy to
PIT +2.0
State
PLAY
Edges, Briefing, Pushes, and Nova Chat read the same record. One price, one state, no drift.
The market is already thinking.
Now you have an independent view of it.
MarketNova is a research and pricing product. It does not accept wagers.